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Manager AI – Soft Thresholding & Impact Preview Specification

Purpose

Allow players to freely set resource and flow policies while preventing opaque or catastrophic failure. All policies are accepted, but their consequences are forecast, classified, and clearly communicated before and after application.

This preserves player agency while bounding frustration.

Core Forecast Signals (evaluated per resource, per scope)

1. Infrastructure Delta

Question: How much new infrastructure is implied by this policy?

Computed as:

  • Δ transports
  • Δ mines
  • Δ depots / relays

Thresholds:

  • INFO: +10–25%
  • WARN: +25–100%
  • STRONG: +100%+

Example:

  • “Transport capacity required: +110% (12 → 25)” ⚠⚠

2. Time-to-Empty (Buffer Burn-Down)

Question: How long until the on-hand buffer reaches zero under the new policy, assuming current infrastructure and ramp plan?

Computed by simulating:

  • current inventory
  • consumption
  • delayed production and logistics ramp-up

Thresholds:

  • INFO: > 60 min
  • WARN: 15–30 min
  • STRONG: < 15 min
  • CRITICAL: < 5 min

Example:

  • “Iron buffer exhausted in 14 minutes” ⚠⚠

3. Time-to-Compliance (Policy Lag)

Question: How long until the system meets the new target sustainably?

Includes:

  • build times
  • transport travel times
  • survey delays
  • construction bottlenecks

Thresholds:

  • INFO: < 15 min
  • WARN: 15–60 min
  • STRONG: > 60 min

Example:

  • “Estimated time to stable supply: 1h 12m” ⚠⚠

Impact Preview Panel (Shown on Policy Change)

When a player applies or edits a policy:

Impact Preview

  • Transport capacity change: +110% ⚠⚠
  • Buffer exhaustion: 14 min ⚠⚠
  • Time to stable supply: 1h 12m ⚠⚠
  • Confidence: Low (40% surveyed)

Buttons:

  • Apply Anyway
  • Apply with Safeguards…

Safeguards (Optional, Player-Selected)

1. Phase-In

Gradually apply the policy over time.

  • Example: “Ramp iron sourcing to 100% over 20 minutes.”

2. Emergency Borrowing

Temporarily override reserve locks to prevent buffer collapse.

  • Example: “Allow Cluster A to cover deficits until stable.”

3. Expansion Rate Cap

Limit how fast the AI can build infrastructure.

  • Example: “Max +50% transports per 10 minutes.”

4. Consumption Throttling

Pause or slow non-critical consumers.

  • Example: “Delay low-priority construction.”

Warning Philosophy

  • Warnings trigger only when the new policy worsens forecasts compared to the current state.
  • Existing bad situations do not generate new warnings unless the player makes them worse.
  • All warnings are informational, never blocking.

Design Guarantees

  • Policies never silently fail.
  • Every shortage has a single-screen explanation.
  • No configuration causes irreversible deadlock.
  • Emergency recovery is always possible, but costly or reputationally damaging.

Design Rule of Thumb

If a player action:

  • increases infrastructure by >100%, or
  • drains a buffer in <15 minutes, or
  • takes >1 hour to stabilize,

then it must be:

  • previewed,
  • labeled clearly,
  • and optionally phaseable.

This system ensures complexity remains strategic, not punitive.

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